The national housing market is slowing down. Chicago is not getting the memo.
New data from Redfin shows the median U.S. monthly housing payment hit $2,647 for the four weeks ending June 14 — the highest level in a year and just about $100 shy of 2023's all-time high. Pending home sales have now fallen five weeks in a row nationally. New listings are pulling back too, as sellers notice fewer buyers at the door.
But Chicago is bucking that trend in a meaningful way, and Chicago Agent Magazine flagged it this week: Chicago ranks among the top metros in the country for year-over-year home price growth. According to Redfin's data, Chicago home prices rose 7.7% year over year, putting the city fourth out of the 50 largest U.S. metros — behind only San Francisco (10.4%), Pittsburgh (9.3%), and St. Louis (8.3%).
That is not an accident. It reflects something structural about this market.
Why Chicago Keeps Rising When Other Cities Stall
A few things are driving Chicago's outperformance.
First, Chicago never had the speculative run-up that Sun Belt cities did during 2021 and 2022. While prices in Phoenix, Austin, and Tampa shot up 30% or more in a short window, Chicago's gains were steadier and more demand-driven. That means there's no correction overhang here. What you're seeing now is organic price growth in a city where housing was already undervalued relative to comparable coastal metros.
Second, inventory remains tight. Chicago new listings are up 10.5% year over year — one of the larger increases nationally, and a positive sign for buyers who have been locked out by limited supply. But more listings haven't cooled prices because more buyers are competing for them. Demand is keeping pace with the new supply coming online.
Third, Chicago's employment base is diversified and its relative affordability still draws buyers from higher-cost cities. That migration dynamic supports price floors in ways that don't apply to markets that overbuilt or over-appreciated.
What This Means If You're Buying or Selling Right Now
Nationally, the Redfin data paints a picture of buyer hesitation. The average mortgage rate sits at 6.52%, which on a $403,889 median-priced home translates to that $2,647 monthly payment — a level that's simply out of reach for a large portion of would-be buyers. Pending sales are falling. Sellers are being advised to price competitively rather than test the ceiling.
Chicago is not immune to those pressures, but it is more insulated than most. Buyers here are still competing. Well-priced homes are still moving. And sellers who price with the market, rather than above it, are still finding strong offers.
If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for Chicago prices to soften before jumping in, the data suggests that may be a long wait. The same dynamics keeping national prices elevated — high rates, limited supply, and persistent demand — are amplified here by Chicago's relative affordability advantage and the city's continued appeal to buyers priced out of coastal markets.
The Honest Takeaway
Seven percent price growth in a year where national buyer activity is shrinking tells you something: Chicago is not just holding its own. It's one of the stronger housing stories in the country right now, and most people outside the market haven't fully priced that in.
Whether you're trying to time a purchase, thinking about selling, or just trying to understand what your home is worth in this environment, the picture is more nuanced than the national headlines suggest.
Have questions about what the current market means for your home or your next move in Chicago? Reach out to Camille directly. She tracks these numbers closely and can give you a clear read on exactly where your neighborhood stands.
📞 Call or text: 773-377-9200 ✉️ Email: [email protected]
Sources: Redfin — Housing Payments Hit 1-Year High, Sending Buyers to the Sidelines | Chicago Agent Magazine — Chicago Home Prices Among Biggest Gains
